Economics bulletin 01 September

Date : 01 September 2023

Your overview of economic and policy news with a focus on the food and consumer goods industry. Featuring the latest developments and guidance on the rising cost of living, the Ukraine conflict, labour shortages, policy developments and adapting to a new relationship with the EU.

Rebuilding economic resilience in the UK food supply chain

The combination of weaker on-shelf availability and high and persistent levels of food inflation points to a faltering food supply chain, undermining the reputation of the food and consumer goods industry.

Next week we will publish our latest Viewpoint Special report: Rebuilding economic resilience in the UK food supply chain. Read our report preview, highlighting what’s happening, the key issues impacting the food supply chain and the emerging threats.

Target operating model changes

Checks on food imported into the UK have been delayed by 3 months to 31 January 2024 as part of the final version of the Target Operating Model. Following a period of feedback with industry, checks will now commence in a phased approach with the introduction of health certificates on medium and high-risk products.

The government expects that the inflation impact will be minimal, estimated at 0.2% over 3 years, although it may be higher in specific food and drink categories.

IGD view: Although some timelines have been extended, this is limited, and businesses will still need to respond promptly. Please see our detailed analysis on the final version of the Border Target Operating Model.

Supply chain issues remain

IGD consumer research reveals that availability concerns remain highest for fresh produce and dairy but have declined significantly since their peak in March 2023.

Availability concerns remain highest in Northern Ireland (75% compared to 48% in East Midlands).

For our full analysis, please see our Supply chain issues article.

Shopper confidence declines marginally

IGD’s Shopper Confidence Index declined marginally in August to -11 (compared to -10 last month). Fewer believe that food prices will be cheaper in the next year (8% vs 11% last month). ShopperVista subscribers will be able to read the full Shopper Confidence Index report here.

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Our round-up of the latest economic and political news, focused on FMCGs