In November last year, IGD published a first of its kind system net zero transition plan with EY and WRAP. It was an independent evidence-based plan, designed to be a reference point for all sectors and organisations in the food system, as they work on the shared challenge of achieving net zero by 2040. It was welcomed by the Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs, Daniel Zeichner at the launch event. It was also shared at the first of the relaunched Net Zero Council meetings in February of this year, as best practise in system planning for net zero.
This article provides a summary of work that has been done since the plan was published and some observations on what’s to come.
A key conclusion from the plan was that, although stretching, the goal of net zero is feasible, but that more collective action will be required. This is core to the work we do at IGD, across the food system to:
- support the scaling of good practice and progress
- generate resource and cost efficiencies, by reducing duplicative work
- draw on respective strengths of organisations and sectors
Developments since launch
At January’s Oxford Farming Conference, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Steve Reed announced a new deal for farmers following last year’s commitment to development of a new 25 year Farming Roadmap. In line with the government’s growth agenda, the deal is based on the importance of economic growth and value for the sector to “deliver a profitable farming sector and unlock rural growth”.
This was followed by the government opening the land use framework consultation, open until end of April, the conclusions of which will be key to the food system, levels of domestic production and therefore food security. These were all topics of high interest for industry, throughout the development of the system net zero transition plan.
In February, the Climate Change Committee delivered its seventh budget, covering 2038-2042. This statutory report provides advice to Government that includes recommendations on the agricultural transition (supply side) and diet change (demand side).
The budget recommends reducing livestock production in the UK, to lower emissions and free-up land for restoration to act as carbon sinks. There will need to be incentives for famers to diversify into peatland restoration and planting trees.
In the context of diets, the budget recommends average meat consumption needs to decline by 25% to 2040, and 35% by 2050 (compared to 2019 Family Food Dataset), but with a steeper reduction in red meat consumption - 40% by 2050. It recommends that dairy consumption needs to decline by 20%. This reduction in demand would ensure that a fall in domestic production doesn't lead to substitution of imported products.
This reduction is more than the current long term-term trend, which if it continued would lead to 5% reduction and 8% reduction in dairy consumption by 2030.
Demand for meat has been falling faster than this in recent years (a 10% fall in overall meat consumption between 2020 and 2022). It is too early to tell whether this trend will continue in the long term or is a temporary response to the cost-of-living crisis, which saw an 11% decrease in overall food purchases by weight between 2020 and 2022.
In a new aspect to its methodology, the CCC involved a citizen panel, to discuss these dietary recommendations. The panel were in favour but wanted government to ensure that alternative proteins were accessible and affordable, a view that’s been echoed by the Food Foundation. This also aligns with the views from citizen consultation in the Food, Farming and Countryside Commission Food Conversation work.
Development of a new government Food Strategy will involve all this work, strengthening the integration of sustainability and health agendas. More details on this are expected shortly.
Collective Action
The net zero transition plan proposed actions for government, the food industry and specific sectors. The Net Zero Council will facilitate consultation with government on actions.
IGD will publish a progress report in the summer on collective industry action. In the meantime, The Food System Change Leader Forum, established in April 2024 and convened by IGD with WRAP and WWF, is focusing on key levers for system change and workstreams that will support progress to net zero.
There are also fast developing opportunities around soil carbon, with the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) work on a carbon baselining trial with 170 farms in England due to deliver valuable learning and progress this year, which will contribute to the harmonisation of farm data.
In terms of sector transition plans, following Dairy UK’s Dairy roadmap published in 2021, AHDB released a Beef and Lamb roadmap in February.
WRAP is continuing work in reducing household food waste, building on its learning to date.
A key workstream is population diet change, working with forum members from production, manufacturing and retail, with support from the British Nutrition Foundation and consultation with NGOs. The initial emphasis is on aligned reporting, as an input to an aligned industry position on diet shift, and we will share more detail in the coming weeks.