For more information read our full report.

Impacts of climate change

Climate change is arguably the greatest risk the global economic system faces. Human-induced climate change is causing widespread impacts across the globe. Above 1.5°C point of warming, against pre-industrial levels would mean some of the impacts from climate change will be irreversible.

As the climate crisis progresses, extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods will become more frequent and intense. If temperature rise were to increase over 2 degrees, it could lead to ‘severe food security risks’ in the global food system.

Climate change will disrupt growing patterns within the UK, changing yields and increasing the risk of pests and disease. Different parts of the country will have differing experiences of extreme weather events.

The UK will not necessarily experience the very worst of the impacts of climate change, but it is not separate from the global food system. The UK is self-sufficient in 60% of its food. Globally, 10% of land suitable for major crops and livestock will be unsuitable by mid-century due to climate change.

Falling yields may increase global producer prices by 20% by 2050. A price change of this magnitude would be a distinct change from the historical norm. Global food producer prices have fallen in real terms over the past 70 years.

Climate change makes it harder for the government to ensure the resilience of the UK’s food supply and consumers are likely to see more challenges in the years ahead. Extreme weather events and shifting growing conditions would lead to greater price volatility.

The impacts of climate change on an interconnected food system are vast. Many of the risks covered in this report are risks in and of themselves but are exacerbated by the changing climate.

Transition risk

The Paris Agreement, aimed at limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is driving a rapid transition to net-zero across the global economy. The UK is one of the fastest transitioning economies, its CO2 emissions per capita have fallen by 55% since 1990.

The food system is central to whether the UK hits its legally binding Net Zero goal by 2050. It is estimated that the food system is responsible for 35% of the UK’s emissions.

Up to this point, the primary focus of governments has been transitioning the energy system away from fossil fuels. It is likely that attention will turn to food next as the second largest polluter. This shift has already begun.

Businesses and entire sectors of the food industry have made ambitious Net Zero commitments, however, the system must re-double efforts to accelerate progress towards these commitments.

Significant dietary shifts are required to make progress to more sustainable diets. Certain protein sources, with the greatest environmental impact, could be most exposed to government intervention and changing consumer behaviour.

Significant shifts in demand must be matched by shifts in supply patterns. A rapid transition between certain goods, without considering the supply chain could see businesses writing off assets or closing, alongside shortages of supply for consumers.

Businesses are now required to report their exposure to climate-related risks through the Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). Significant exposure to climate-related risks may drive investor decisions, impacting businesses’ ability to access capital.

IGD’s role in building a resilient food system

IGD is supporting the industry to harmonise environmental labelling and has shared a summary of progress to date. IGD’s work will inform DEFRA's planned consultation on eco-labelling in 2024.