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- Increasing population
- The population is ageing
- Ethnic Diversity
- Smaller households
- Higher proportion of women working
Increasing population
The UK population is increasing
- In 2008 there were 61.4 million people living in the UK
- This is a growth of 400,000 on the previous year and an increase of 2.3 million since 2001
- The UK population is expected to grow to 71 million people by 2031
- Growth between 2008 and 2031 is expected to be at a greater rate in England (17% to 60.1 million) than in the other countries making up the UK
- The population in Wales is expected to grow at 11% to 3.3 million. Northern Ireland population is expected to grow by 13% to 2 million, while Scotland expects slower growth of 7% to give a population in 2031 of 5.5 million
Certain segments of the population are growing faster than others.
Actual and projected UK population
Source: 2008 based national population projections
The population is ageing
In December 2009 the Office for National Statistics reported that the proportion of the UK population aged under 16 had dropped from 25% in 1971 to 19% in 2008. At the same time, the proportion aged 65 and over had risen to 16% compared to 13% in 1971. This trend is projected to continue. By 2031, 22% of the population will be aged 65 and over compared to 18% aged 16 or younger.
The fastest population increase has been in the number of those aged 85 and over, the ’oldest old‘. In 1983, there were just over 600,000 people in the UK aged 85 and over. Since then, the numbers have more than doubled, reaching 1.3 million in 2008. By 2033 the number of people aged 85 and over is projected to more than double again to 3.2 million, and to account for 5% of the total population.
The older generation represents a significant marketing opportunity for the food and grocery industry, with those aged 50 and over making up 34% of the population, 51% of food & grocery spend, and 80% of disposable income. Key demands from this group are for clearer labelling, smaller pack sizes and healthy product formulations. They also prioritise customer service and ease of shopping.
Ethnic Diversity
Increased migration into the UK over recent decades has resulted in a progressively diverse ethnic composition. Net migration into the UK accounted for 62% of population growth between 2001 and 2008, though this has slipped back recently, accounting for 46% of growth in the year to mid 2008.
Our increasingly ethnically diverse population has led to cultural variations in attitudes to food, eating, shopping and cooking, bringing greater complexity to overall consumer demands.
Greater exposure to new cultures has also broadened the horizons of the existing population who want to experience new cuisines.
Immigration will continue to provide opportunities for meeting a diverse range of needs. As well as the needs of the immigrant population themselves, these trends will impact the mainstream food culture of the country.
Smaller households
In 2007 almost two thirds of households in the UK were one or two person households, having increased from half in 1971.
The number of households has increased faster than the population over recent decades because of the trend toward smaller households.
More people are now living alone. While this rise has levelled off in recent years, the number of single person households has increased to almost three in ten (29%) in 2009 compared to 14% in 1961, rising at a faster rate than the population as a whole.
As many as three in five women aged 75 and over lived on their own in 2007 (61%), compared with a third of men in the same age group (34%).
The number of single person households is set to increase further. It is projected that the number of one-person households in England will increase by 60% to nearly 11 million households in 2031 (Source: Office for National Statistics).
More single person households means that demand for smaller convenient portion sizes will increase and convenience options will continue to be important for those who do not want to cook a meal just for themselves.
The decrease in average household size will impact shoppers' needs, including smaller pack sizes, ready-prepared food, and eating out. It may also reduce the incidence of people eating formal meals and increase the likelihood of people ‘grazing’ on snacks and smaller meals throughout the day.
Household size in decline
Source: Census, Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
Higher proportion of women working
There has also been a growth in the number of women in employment (Source: Office for National Statistics). The proportion of women aged 16-64 in employment has grown to 69% in 2009, compared to less than 60% in 1971. In comparison, the proportion of men in employment has declined from more than 90% to 76% over the same time period.
Previous IGD research (Source: Learning from the Restaurateurs report, 2007) has shown that the impact of needing to coordinate combining work with busy social lives meant that many single women had little time for cooking and preferred the convenience and experience of eating out. Mums also had to juggle their work commitments with caring for the family and highlighted the need for convenience options as well as eating out.
The growth in the number of women in employment has contributed towards the trend for more convenience in recent decades, with an increasing focus on impulse, out-of-home and on-the-go consumption. The growth of quick service and a café culture in recent years has encouraged the retail sector to develop its own foodservice and food-to-go offers. Research by IGD in 2009 (Source: Food to Go report, 2009) found that despite the economic downturn, as many as three in four had food or drink-to-go.
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